The economy is expected to grow at a rate of 7.8% in the current fiscal, a shade lower than earlier forecast of 7.9%, says a survey sponsored by the Reserve Bank.
"Forecasters expect real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase by 7.8% in 2015-16. 'Agriculture and Allied Activities' and 'Services' are expected to grow by 2.2% and 10%, respectively," the survey of RBI-sponsored Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators said.
The professionals in the latest survey viewed that the 'industry' would grow by 6.2% in the current fiscal.
The Gross Value Added (GVA) is a new concept introduced by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to measure the economic activity. As per the CSO, it rose by 7.2% in 2014-15 compared 6.6% in the previous fiscal.
In 2016-17, the survey said that GVA is expected to increase by 8.2%, led by growth in 'services' by 10.1%.
"In terms of subjective probabilities assigned to growth projections, forecasters ascribed maximum 55 per cent chance that GVA growth in 2015-16 will be in the range of 7.5-7.9%," the findings said.
For the year 2016-17, GVA growth in 8-8.4% range is the most probable outcome, it added.
It further said the private final consumption expenditure at current prices is expected to increase by 12.7% in 2015-16 and further by 13.1% next year.
The gross saving rate is projected at 30.8% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) in 2015-16 and 31% of GNDI in the next fiscal.
As per the survey, the central government's gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is projected at 3.9% of GDP in 2015-16 and is expected to moderate to 3.5% in the following year.
The combined GFD of Central and State Governments is projected at 6.5% of GDP in 2015-16 and is expected to improve to 6.2% of GDP in 2016-17.
It further said that both money supply and bank credit growth expectations declined for 2015-16 in the latest round of survey. While money supply (M3) is expected to increase by 12.5% in 2015-16, bank credit is expected to expand by 13.5%.
Merchandise exports growth is estimated at 1.2% in 2015-16 and to improve to 6.2% in 2016-17.
"Current Account Deficit is projected at 1% and 1.3% (of GDP) in 2015-16 and 2016-17, respectively," the survey added.
Forecasters assigned maximum probability of 70% that retail inflation will be in the range 5-5.9% in March 2016. Based on this probability distribution, the implicit CPI inflation rate for March 2016 is expected at 5.6%.The survey released in April had projected the GVA to increase by 7.9% in 2015-16.
Source - DNA money
No comments:
Post a Comment